美國戰略性模糊政策對兩岸互動

羅致政


摘要/Abstract
     在影響台海兩岸關係變化的眾多因素當中,美國所扮演的角色無疑是 相當重要的。本文旨在探究華府在台北與北京互動關係上所發揮的作用。 文章首先探討克林頓政府在後冷戰時期的全球與亞太戰略,其次分析其「 全面交往」的對華政策與「戰略性模糊」的兩岸政策。隨後,以博奕理論 建構台灣與大陸之間互動的關係,並探討美國現行政策對此一互動關係的 影響。 

   本研究指出,美國目前所推動的戰略性模糊政策,並沒有也不會改變 兩岸目前互動的本質與基本動力,只不過產生推波助瀾的作用而己。此一 政策影響下的兩岸關係,其主要特徵為「時好時壞」以及「安全但不穩定 」。基於確保台灣問題的和平解決,本文建議華府可以積動推動雙重交往 的政策,為兩岸的交流與合作創造更佳的國際格局。 

 


  
《東吳政治學報》,第六期(民國85年3月),頁175-202. 

The U.S. Policy of Strategic Ambiguity and Its Impact on Cross-Strait Interactions

Chih-Cheng Lo


Abstract
     Among the factors affecting cross-Strait relationship, the role played by the U.S. is one of the greatest importance. This study seeks to explore the influence of Washington on the interaction between Taipei and Beijing. Having reviewed the Clinton Adminis- tration's global and Asian-Pacific strategies in this post-Cold War era, this study investigates the U.S. "comprehensive engagement" policy towards China and its "strategic ambiguity" policy regarding the question of Taiwan. Building upon a game model, this paper further examines how such policies influence the Taiwan-Mainland dyad. 

   This study contends that the U.S. present policy of strategic ambiguity has not and will not transform the nature and dynamics of cross-Strait interaction; it only reinforces them. The defining features of the Taipei-Beijing interaction include a mixture of compromise and conflict and that of being secure but not stable. To ensure a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan question, this paper suggests that Washington could actively pursue a policy of "dual engagement" helping to create a better international environment conducive to the communication and cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. 。 

 


  
Soochow Journal of Political Science, No. 6(March 1996), pp.175-202. 
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